Conferência Climática de Bali

Carta aberta ao secretário-geral das Nações Unidas e aos chefes de Estado que subscreveram o acordo para novo tratado

Signatários [*]

É impossível deter as alterações climáticas, um fenómeno natural que tem afectado a humanidade através dos tempos. Os testemunhos históricos, geológicos, arqueológicos, orais e escritos provam todos os desafios fundamentais que as sociedades antigas tiveram de enfrentar perante alterações imprevistas de temperatura, de precipitação, de vento e de outras variáveis climáticas. Devemos consequentemente preparar as nações para resistir a todos estes fenómenos naturais promovendo o crescimento económico e a criação de riqueza.

O Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) tem publicado conclusões cada vez mais alarmistas sobre a influência climática do CO2 de origem humana, um gás não poluente que é essencial à fotossíntese das plantas. Embora compreendamos os argumentos que levaram a considerar as emissões de CO2 como perigosas, as conclusões do IPCC são absolutamente injustificadas e não devem conduzir a políticas que vão reduzir significativamente a prosperidade futura. Em especial, não foi estabelecido que seria possível modificar significativamente o clima global reduzindo as emissões humanas de gases com efeito de estufa. Acima de tudo, porque as tentativas de reduzir emissões vão retardar o desenvolvimento, a abordagem actual da ONU sobre a redução do CO2 é susceptível de agravar o sofrimento humano devido às alterações climáticas futuras em vez de o reduzir.

O Resumo para os Decisores Políticos do IPCC é o documento mais consultado pelos políticos e pelos não-cientistas e está na base da maior parte das decisões políticas sobre as alterações climáticas. Contudo, este resumo é preparado por um núcleo relativamente restrito de redactores e a sua versão final é aprovada linha a linha por representantes dos governos. A grande maioria dos contribuintes e revisores do relatório [geral do IPCC] e das dezenas de milhares doutros cientistas qualificados que comentam sobre esta matéria não estão implicados na preparação deste documento [do Resumo]. O Resumo não pode por conseguinte ser considerado como representativo de um consenso de especialistas.

Contrariamente à impressão dada pelo Resumo para os Decisores Políticos, do IPCC:



As observações recentes dos fenómenos como a retracção dos glaciares, o aumento do nível do mar e a migração das espécies não testemunham uma alteração climática anormal porque nenhuma destas alterações está para além dos limites da variabilidade natural que conhecemos.

O ritmo médio de aquecimento de 0,1 ºC/década a 0,2 ºC/década registado pelos satélites nas últimas décadas do século XX está dentro dos limites de aquecimento e de arrefecimento observado nos últimos 10 mil anos.

Cientistas de primeiro plano, incluindo representantes importantes do IPCC, reconhecem que os modelos informáticos actuais não podem prever o clima. Assim, e apesar das projecções dos computadores de um aumento de temperatura, não tem havido aquecimento global desde 1998. O patamar de temperatura actual que se seguiu a um período de aquecimento no final do século XX está de acordo com ciclos naturais multidecenais ou milenários.

Exactamente oposto à afirmação frequentemente repetida de que na ciência do clima "terminou o debate", um número importante de novas publicações em revistas com revisão pelos pares coloca cada vez mais em dúvida a hipótese de um aquecimento perigoso de origem humana. Mas como os grupos de trabalho do IPCC tiveram instruções para examinar as publicações [somente] até Maio de 2005 (cf. instruções IPCC ) as posteriores conclusões importantes não estão incluídas no seu relatório; o que quer dizer que os relatórios de avaliação do IPCC são baseados em resultados já obsoletos.
A conferência sobre o clima de Bali foi destinada a conduzir o Mundo pelo caminho de uma restrição severa de CO2, ignorando as lições evidentes que se podem tirar do malogro do Protocolo de Quioto, o caos no mercado de transferências de CO2 estabelecido pela Europa e a ineficácia de outras iniciativas dispendiosas destinadas a reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa. Análises custo-benefício objectivas desacreditam a introdução de medidas globais destinadas a limitar e a reduzir o consumo de energia para reduzir as emissões de CO2. Além disso, é irracional aplicar o "princípio da precaução" porque numerosos cientistas reconhecem que um arrefecimento ou um aquecimento são ambos procedentes e realistas para o clima a médio prazo.

O esforço actual da ONU para "combater as alterações climáticas", como é apresentado no Relatório sobre o Desenvolvimento Humano do Programa de Desenvolvimento da ONU, de 27 de Novembro de 2007, desvia a atenção dos governos para a ameaça de alterações climáticas inevitáveis sob as suas diferentes formas. É necessária a planificação nacional e internacional perante tais mudanças, ajudando prioritariamente os cidadãos mais vulneráveis a adaptar-se às condições futuras. Tentar impedir o clima de se alterar é fútil e constitui uma má e trágica aplicação de recursos que seriam bem melhor utilizados na resolução de problemas verdadeiros e mais prementes.

[*] Lista de signatários:
- Don Aitkin, PhD, Professor, social scientist, retired vice-chancellor and president, University of Canberra, Australia
- William J.R. Alexander, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa; Member, UN Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters, 1994-2000
- Bjarne Andresen, PhD, physicist, Professor, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
- Geoff L. Austin, PhD, FNZIP, FRSNZ, Professor, Dept. of Physics, University of Auckland, New Zealand
- Timothy F. Ball, PhD, environmental consultant, former climatology professor, University of Winnipeg
- Ernst-Georg Beck, Dipl. Biol., Biologist, Merian-Schule Freiburg, Germany
- Sonja A. Boehmer-Christiansen, PhD, Reader, Dept. of Geography, Hull University, U.K.; Editor, Energy & Environment journal
- Chris C. Borel, PhD, remote sensing scientist, U.S.
- Reid A. Bryson, PhD, DSc, DEngr, UNE P. Global 500 Laureate; Senior Scientist, Center for Climatic Research; Emeritus Professor of Meteorology, of Geography, and of Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin
- Dan Carruthers, M.Sc., wildlife biology consultant specializing in animal ecology in Arctic and Subarctic regions, Alberta
- R.M. Carter, PhD, Professor, Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
- Ian D. Clark, PhD, Professor, isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa
- Richard S. Courtney, PhD, climate and atmospheric science consultant, IPCC expert reviewer, U.K.
- Willem de Lange, PhD, Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, School of Science and Engineering, Waikato University, New Zealand
- David Deming, PhD (Geophysics), Associate Professor, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Oklahoma
- Freeman J. Dyson, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton, N.J.
- Don J. Easterbrook, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Geology, Western Washington University
- Lance Endersbee, Emeritus Professor, former dean of Engineering and Pro-Vice Chancellor of Monasy University, Australia
- Hans Erren, Doctorandus, geophysicist and climate specialist, Sittard, The Netherlands
- Robert H. Essenhigh, PhD, E.G. Bailey Professor of Energy Conversion, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, The Ohio State University
- Christopher Essex, PhD, Professor of Applied Mathematics and Associate Director of the Program in Theoretical Physics, University of Western Ontario
- David Evans, PhD, mathematician, carbon accountant, computer and electrical engineer and head of 'Science Speak,' Australia
- William Evans, PhD, editor, American Midland Naturalist; Dept. of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame
- Stewart Franks, PhD, Professor, Hydroclimatologist, University of Newcastle, Australia
- R. W. Gauldie, PhD, Research Professor, Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, School of Ocean Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawai'i, Manoa
- Lee C. Gerhard, PhD, Senior Scientist Emeritus, University of Kansas; former director and state geologist, Kansas Geological Survey
- Gerhard Gerlich, Professor for Mathematical and Theoretical Physics, Institut für Mathematische Physik der TU Braunschweig, Germany
- Albrecht Glatzle, PhD, sc.agr., Agro-Biologist and Gerente ejecutivo, INTTAS, Paraguay
- Fred Goldberg, PhD, Adjunct Professor, Royal Institute of Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Stockholm, Sweden
- Vincent Gray, PhD, expert reviewer for the IPCC and author of The Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of Climate Change 2001, Wellington, New Zealand
- William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University and Head of the Tropical Meteorology Project
- Howard Hayden, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut
- Louis Hissink MSc, M.A.I.G., editor, AIG News, and consulting geologist, Perth, Western Australia
- Craig D. Idso, PhD, Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Arizona
- Sherwood B. Idso, PhD, President, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, AZ, USA
- Andrei Illarionov, PhD, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity; founder and director of the Institute of Economic Analysis
- Zbigniew Jaworowski, PhD, physicist, Chairman - Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Warsaw, Poland
- Jon Jenkins, PhD, MD, computer modelling - virology, NSW, Australia
- Wibjorn Karlen, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden
- Olavi Kärner, Ph.D., Research Associate, Dept. of Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Astrophysics and Atmospheric Physics, Toravere, Estonia
- Joel M. Kauffman, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, University of the Sciences in Philadelphia
- David Kear, PhD, FRSNZ, CMG, geologist, former Director-General of NZ Dept. of Scientific & Industrial Research, New Zealand
- Madhav Khandekar, PhD, former research scientist, Environment Canada; editor, Climate Research (2003-05); editorial board member, Natural Hazards; IPCC expert reviewer 2007
- William Kininmonth M.Sc., M.Admin., former head of Australia's National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological Organization's Commission for Climatology
- Jan J.H. Kop, MSc Ceng FICE (Civil Engineer Fellow of the Institution of Civil Engineers), Emeritus Prof. of Public Health Engineering, Technical University Delft, The Netherlands
- Prof. R.W.J. Kouffeld, Emeritus Professor, Energy Conversion, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
- Salomon Kroonenberg, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Geotechnology, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
- Hans H.J. Labohm, PhD, economist, former advisor to the executive board, Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands Institute of International Relations), The Netherlands
- The Rt. Hon. Lord Lawson of Blaby, economist; Chairman of the Central Europe Trust; former Chancellor of the Exchequer, U.K.
- Douglas Leahey, PhD, meteorologist and air-quality consultant, Calgary
- David R. Legates, PhD, Director, Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware
- Marcel Leroux , PhD, Professor Emeritus of Climatology, University of Lyon, France; former director of Laboratory of Climatology, Risks and Environment, CNRS
- Bryan Leyland, International Climate Science Coalition, consultant and power engineer, Auckland, New Zealand
- William Lindqvist, PhD, independent consulting geologist, Calif.
- Richard S. Lindzen , PhD, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- A.J. Tom van Loon, PhD, Professor of Geology (Quaternary Geology), Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland; former President of the European Association of Science Editors
- Anthony R. Lupo, PhD, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, Dept. of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri-Columbia
- Richard Mackey, PhD, Statistician, Australia
- Horst Malberg, PhD, Professor for Meteorology and Climatology, Institut für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany
- John Maunder, PhD, Climatologist, former President of the Commission for Climatology of the World Meteorological Organization (89-97), New Zealand
- Alister McFarquhar, PhD, international economy, Downing College, Cambridge, U.K.
- Ross McKitrick, PhD, Associate Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Guelph
- John McLean, PhD, climate data analyst, computer scientist, Australia
- Owen McShane, PhD, economist, head of the International Climate Science Coalition; Director, Centre for Resource Management Studies, New Zealand
- Fred Michel, PhD, Director, Institute of Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of Earth Sciences, Carleton University
- Frank Milne, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Economics, Queen's University
- Asmunn Moene, PhD, former head of the Forecasting Centre, Meteorological Institute, Norway
- Alan Moran, PhD, Energy Economist, Director of the IPA's Deregulation Unit, Australia
- Nils-Axel Morner, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm University, Sweden
- Lubos Motl, PhD, Physicist, former Harvard string theorist, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
- John Nicol, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Physics, James Cook University, Australia
- David Nowell, M.Sc., Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society, former chairman of the NATO Meteorological Group, Ottawa
- James J. O'Brien, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Meteorology and Oceanography, Florida State University
- Cliff Ollier, PhD, Professor Emeritus (Geology), Research Fellow, University of Western Australia
- Garth W. Paltridge, PhD, atmospheric physicist, Emeritus Professor and former Director of the Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia
- R. Timothy Patterson, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Earth Sciences (paleoclimatology), Carleton University
- Al Pekarek, PhD, Associate Professor of Geology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Dept., St. Cloud State University, Minnesota
- Ian Plimer, PhD, Professor of Geology, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide and Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia
- Brian Pratt, PhD, Professor of Geology, Sedimentology, University of Saskatchewan
- Harry N.A. Priem, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Planetary Geology and Isotope Geophysics, Utrecht University; former director of the Netherlands Institute for Isotope Geosciences
- Alex Robson, PhD, Economics, Australian National University Colonel F.P.M. Rombouts, Branch Chief - Safety, Quality and Environment, Royal Netherland Air Force
- R.G. Roper, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology
- Arthur Rorsch, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Molecular Genetics, Leiden University, The Netherlands
- Rob Scagel, M.Sc., forest microclimate specialist, principal consultant, Pacific Phytometric Consultants, B.C.
- Tom V. Segalstad, PhD, (Geology/Geochemistry), Head of the Geological Museum and Associate Professor of Resource and Environmental Geology, University of Oslo, Norway
- Gary D. Sharp, PhD, Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study, Salinas, CA
- S. Fred Singer, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia and former director Weather Satellite Service
- L. Graham Smith, PhD, Associate Professor, Dept. of Geography, University of Western Ontario
- Roy W. Spencer, PhD, climatologist, Principal Research Scientist, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama, Huntsville
- Peter Stilbs, TeknD, Professor of Physical Chemistry, Research Leader, School of Chemical Science and Engineering, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology), Stockholm, Sweden
- Hendrik Tennekes, PhD, former director of research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
- Dick Thoenes, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Chemical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands
- Brian G Valentine, PhD, PE (Chem.), Technology Manager - Industrial Energy Efficiency, Adjunct Associate Professor of Engineering Science, University of Maryland at College Park; Dept of Energy, Washington, DC
- Gerrit J. van der Lingen, PhD, geologist and paleoclimatologist, climate change consultant, Geoscience Research and Investigations, New Zealand
- Len Walker, PhD, Power Engineering, Australia
- Edward J. Wegman, PhD, Department of Computational and Data Sciences, George Mason University, Virginia
- Stephan Wilksch, PhD, Professor for Innovation and Technology Management, Production Management and Logistics, University of Technolgy and Economics Berlin, Germany
- Boris Winterhalter, PhD, senior marine researcher (retired), Geological Survey of Finland, former professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, Finland
- David E. Wojick, PhD, P.Eng., energy consultant, Virginia
- Raphael Wust, PhD, Lecturer, Marine Geology/Sedimentology, James Cook University, Australia
- A. Zichichi, PhD, President of the World Federation of Scientists, Geneva, Switzerland; Emeritus Professor of Advanced Physics, University of Bologna, Italy.

Em inglês ...

The Phobia of Dangerous Human-caused Global Warming

Professor Bob Carter


It is scarcely necessary to tell an audience whose jobs rest upon their knowledge of nuclear science that a basic human emotion is fear of the unknown. For it is a commonplace amongst credentialled nuclear scientists that satisfactory and safe technological solutions already exist for both the generation of nuclear power and the disposal of nuclear waste. Yet public phobia regarding the nuclear industry remains strong, and is easily fanned by self-interested groups such as environmental lobbyists. The nuclear power “problem”, then, is almost entirely one of politics, not technology.

Fear of invisible radiation is one thing, and fear of the invisible, reputedly-dangerous greenhouse gas carbon dioxide is another similar thing. For over the last few years, many good citizens and expert scientists alike have become strongly committed to the view that global warming caused by human carbon dioxide emissions poses a terrible danger to the future of planet Earth. As a consequence, climate change now ranks second only to terrorism as a topic for political grandstanding by western politicians.

Some simple science facts

To a scientist who is familiar with the factual evidence regarding climate change, this state of affairs is somewhat puzzling. For three key things are known. The first is that climate is always changing: change is what climate does. The second is that the rates and magnitudes of warming during the late 20th century fell within the limits of earlier natural climate change; that they had a mostly or even partly human origin cannot be demonstrated. And the third is that the average global temperature has not increased during the 8 years since 1998 (a warm El Nino year), despite an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide of 15 ppm (4%) over the same period.

Yet the public perception remains that dangerous warming is occurring now, and that it is caused by industrial carbon dioxide emissions. How can such a yawning gap have developed between public perception and what empirical science is telling us?

The answer, as any advertising executive can tell you, is money spent towards the specific end of spreading alarmism on climate. And lots of it: one estimate is that since 1990 the UN and western nations have spent more than $80 billion on climate research. Alarmist results from that research have been widely promulgated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and environmental NGOs such as WWF and Greenpeace.

But despite the massive expenditure, and the best efforts of the thousands of scientists whose endeavours it supports, the reality is that the human influence on global climate that is predicted from computer modelling has not yet been detected. A taxpayer might be tempted to conclude that this particular haystack does not contain a needle at all, but in actuality the human signal that must be there (for humans indubitably have an effect on local climates) is probably simply obscured within the noise and variation of the natural climate system.

How has this state of affairs come about?

The public, then, has been gulled into believing propaganda and speculative computer models rather than being informed with basic facts about climate change. There are two powerful causes of this misinformation. First, the lobbying activities of environmental NGOs and their allies. Second, the now doctrinal, and indeed sometimes intimidatory, nature of modern Western education systems. The indoctrination acts on all school children, but is reinforced strongly for those individuals who pursue tertiary education and emerge as today’s climate research scientists.

The problem can be understood by reading the following four letters in sequence. They were all sent to me in response to a newspaper opinion piece in which, as I do here, I questioned the prevailing mantra on the threat of dangerous human-caused climate change, and attempted to introduce some balanced commonsense into the public discussion.

Letter 1 - From a School pupil’s parent

I appreciated your recent article regarding the global warming hysteria. My children have been filled with dread by all of the hype coming through our school system, reinforced by interminable media support. I have patiently explained things as best I can, but being a simple grocer from the Midwest (USA) I have less credibility than the experts.

I’d appreciate a bit of steerage towards some good information (in addition to your article) that will help me refute the current pop-culture pseudo-science.

Letter 2 - From a University student

My classes in Geology taught me how warming AND cooling trends occur throughout the history of the planet. Why is it so hard for people to understand that the planet is old and has had many episodes of climatic change?

I write to you today, because I am now in my Junior year at a technical college in Virginia - I am enrolled in several Urban Affairs and Planning courses - one in particular is Environmental Planning. Time and again, I find myself at odds with nearly every one of my 55 classmates, in addition to the instructor, over the issue of global warming. Your article gives another voice to my own opinions. I guess my being 40+ years old in the mix of 20 year olds that surround me, perhaps may have something to do with it as well.

Letter 3 - From a civil servant at the start of a professional career

Earlier this year, the Financial Times Magazine contained an article about Sir Gus O'Donnell, Secretary to the Cabinet, Head of the Civil Service and former Permanent Secretary to H. M. Treasury. Here is the rhetorical question that he is reported to have posed to an audience of newly-joined civil servants (Whitehall's newest and brightest recruits):

"When you go to dinner parties do you want to be able to say that you work with an accountancy firm and you've spent the day helping some company pay less tax? Or do you want to say you've been working with the environment department to help save the planet, or with the G8 group of countries to reduce child poverty?"

Letter 4 - From a mid-career university climate teacher and researcher

The reason for the apparent absence of public suppport from scientists for a sceptical position on climate change is professional intimidation.

I have experienced it: letters to my CEO saying that I am irresponsible, snarly comments from students, personal threats from green wackos, condemnation by a national newspaper columnist (which caused me to take legal action), scowls and derision from all the folk who work for the government's main advisory department on climate change, and contempt from those of my colleagues who depend upon the research money on which global warming hysteria feeds.

Those scientists and university teachers who wish to avoid unemployment will not want to appear to take a rational position on the climate issue, not publicly anyway.

Conclusions

These examples were sent to me from three different countries, and I am writing from a fourth about which I have direct personal knowledge; thus the indoctrination and intimidation problems that they exemplify seem likely to be global in scope.

Rather than teaching about the Four Ages of Man, many western education and training systems have now reached the nadir of perpetrating instead the Four Stages of Indoctrination. Climate change is taught in school using the multitude of glossy publications and websites that are provided by alarmist interest groups, which include many government departments. The propaganda is as skilful as it is persuasive, for no expense is spared to spread the alarmist message. It is little wonder that well-meaning members of the public - not to mention sophisticated reporters writing for magazines such as Time, Scientific American and New Scientist - are duped into believing that a climate apocalypse is at hand. Climate reality is different, and is that the planet simply continues to go about the business that it knows best: change is what climate does, and nothing is more certain than that it will continue in future.

The biggest problem with the present-day unwarranted focus on human-caused global warming is that the hysteria surrounding it has distracted governments from the real climate change problem. Which is the threat of natural climate change, the most damaging aspect of which in turn is the future coolings that will occur; indeed, the next may already have started. Government climate planning is needed, but in a way that is responsive to both coolings and warmings, as they occur and if they prove dangerous. It is in this sensible fashion that we manage the aftermath of other unpredictable natural hazards, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

Control of human carbon dioxide emissions, however strict it is, will likely make no measurable difference to future climate. Attempts to “stop climate change” in this or any other fashion are therefore expensive exercises in utter futility.

Fear of radiation and fear of chimerical climate change well up from similar depths in the human psyche. Those who understand their true scientific basis have a deep obligation to allay the widespread and unnecessary public fear that exists regarding these phenomena, not to stimulate it.

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Professor Bob Carter is a geologist and environmental scientist at James Cook University, Queensland, Australia, where he is engaged in palaeoclimate research.
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